I have always been interested in both science and history and, as time goes on, it seems more and more as if the repetition of history is like a law of physics. It is as if there is only a certain amount of information out there so that the information must repeat itself. But the repetition of history is not quite as neat as the laws of physics. It is more like a multidimensional repetition where there is likely a number of historical threads in the repetition.
Let's have a look at the Iranian Revolution of 1979 as an illustration of how there tends to be multiple threads in a repetition of history.
The modern political era began with the French Revolution of 1789. I see it as the "Big Bang" of the modern political era. The king and queen were overthrown and guillotined, by popular revolt, in favor of a republic. But it ended with the rule of Napoleon, who became the prototype of the modern dictator, although he didn't initiate the revolution.
As an illustration of how influential the French Revolution was remember that Napoleon, who eventually became the all-powerful leader, wasn't actually born in France. He was born in Corsica, which had only just come under French control. This pattern was followed by two other powerful Napoleonic figures. Adolf Hitler wasn't born in Germany, he was born in Austria, and Josef Stalin wasn't born in Russia, he was born in Georgia. Corsica is just southeast of France, just as Austria is just southeast of Germany and Georgia is just southeast of Russia.
There have been two major reenactments of the French Revolution, as well as many minor ones. The difference between major and minor is not how important the revolution is, but whether a basic change is made in the direction of the French Revolution in the modern era.
The first major reenactment of the French Revolution, what we could call the Second Revolution, was the October Revolution of 1917. This was the beginning of world Communism. The difference is that the Romanov family was executed by firing squad, rather than guillotined, and the signature event of the revolution was the Storming of the Winter Palace, rather than the Storming of the Bastille.
The October Revolution, this Second Revolution, changed the direction of the French Revolution because of an outside factor that had been added. That factor was widespread industrialization. The development of industries in the last third of the Nineteenth Century made a few people extremely wealthy but some perceived the millions of people who worked for them as underpaid and unfairly exploited. Communists referred to the exploited workers as the Proletariat and the exploitive wealthy as the Bourgeoisie, based on the theory of Karl Marx.
The second major reenactment of the French Revolution, what we could call the Third Revolution, was the Iranian Revolution of 1979. This was the Islamic Revolution. It changed the basic direction of the French Revolution in that the first two revolutions had been against religion but this turned it back toward religion, and not only Islam. In contrast to the first two revolutions, the Shah of Iran managed to escape into exile and, instead of the Storming of the Bastille or the Winter Palace as the signature event, it was the Storming of the U.S. Embassy.
The Iranian Revolution has turned the world, at least the west, back toward religion, thus changing the basic direction of the French Revolution. Not so long ago, in the era of the Second Revolution, nations had nuclear missiles pointed at each other over competing economic systems. Now, when nations deal with each other, no one seems to care much about economics anymore. Russia, once the land of "Godless Communism", is now "Holy Russia", standing against the west that has fallen into decadence and apostasy. The Second Revolution is over and we are now in the era of the Third Revolution.
The influence of the French Revolution on Iran was compounded by the exile of Ayatollah Khomeini, who was sent out of the country because of his opposition to the Shah. Khomeini spent years in neighboring Iraq, as a teacher in the Shiite holy city of Najaf. Iraq had undergone it's own repetition of the French Revolution, with the king overthrown and killed. In fact the revolution had been on July 14, which is Bastille Day. The Iraqi Revolution ended up, just like the French Revolution, with a powerful leader in a military uniform. Saddam Hussein was Iraq's version of Napoleon.
Then Khomeini, joined by his supporters, relocated to a town near Paris. It was actually near the Palace of Versailles, the splendor of which had sparked the French Revolution. It was where the French king and queen who were executed had been living. So the time that Khomeini spent in Iraq and France, during his exile, contributed to the repetition of the French Revolution in Iran.
But there were multiple historical threads in the Iranian Revolution, the French Revolution wasn't the only one. Before the partition of 1947, India bordered Iran. The saga of Ayatollah Khomeini was very much influenced by that of Mahatma Gandhi. An ascetic elderly religious leader, in non-western clothing, leading the country away from foreign influence and back to it's traditional values. This doesn't mean that Khomeini himself was influenced by Gandhi, who was a Hindu, just that the whole story of Khomeini leading the Iranian Revolution was.
The emergence of Mahatma Gandhi, along with the postwar leaders of other Asian countries, is the result of a repetition of history that began with Napoleon, who was the end result of the French Revolution. Spain had a vast empire in the western hemisphere, virtually all territory from what is now the southwestern U.S. southward, except for Brazil which was ruled by Portugal. Napoleon conquered Spain and Portugal. While the two countries would regain their freedom, their colonies managed to break away. Portugal had actually moved it's capital to Rio De Janeiro. After the Napoleonic war, Spain tried to hold onto it's colonies but only managed to keep Cuba, Puerto Rico and, the Philippines, all of which it would lose in the Spanish-American War nearly a century later. European powers held colonies in Asia and this history was repeated after the Second World War. Britain gave up it's colonies mostly peaceably, with France trying to hold onto Vietnam and the Netherlands to Indonesia. Mahatma Gandhi emerged to lead this postwar independence.
The fact that Khomeini spent years in exile before the triumphant return to lead his country resonates with other Asian leaders who came before him. This includes Sun Yat-Sen(China), Chiang Kai-Shek (China), Ho Chi-Minh (Vietnam) and, Syngman Rhee (South Korea). Gandhi had spent more than two decades away from India, mostly in South Africa.
With Iran in possession of much oil, the U.S. and Britain managed to involve themselves in the country. Their influence shows up in the Iranian Revolution, although it was against western influence in the country. Ten years before the Iranian Revolution the U.S. was riven by widespread demonstrations against it's Vietnam War. The demonstrations against the Shah, during the Iranian Revolution, closely resembled America's anti-war demonstrations. Bell-bottom pants were even in style in Iran at the time.
As for British influence, the whole story of Khomeini and his revolution is like a modern reenactment of Oliver Cromwell. Like Khomeini, Oliver Cromwell overthrew the monarchy in the Name of God. He had the Crown Jewels destroyed and the king, Charles I, executed. The son of the king famously escaped by hiding in an oak tree. After Oliver Cromwell died his son took over, but didn't inspire the same devotion, and the son of the executed king was able to restore the monarchy as Charles II.
A mostly forgotten episode of Twentieth Century history is that Britain and the Soviet Union sent forces into Iran during the Second World War. The intention was not to permanently occupy the country but to secure a corridor whereby supplies could be gotten to the Soviet Union, which had been invaded by the Nazis. The Soviet occupation resulted in two short-lived republics, one Azerbaijani and the other Kurdish, attempting to declare independence from Iran. But could anyone have imagined that, thirty-five years later, a revolution would take place in Iran that would be along the lines of, but would supplant, the one that brought the Soviet Union into existence but would be religious in nature, led by a figure that was like a modern Islamic version of Britain's Oliver Cromwell?
This shows how history repeats itself. The repetition of history is almost like a law of physics. But it is not quite as neat and there tends to be multiple historical threads woven together.
No comments:
Post a Comment