What To Expect In Syria

There is some clues of what to expect in Syria. It has so much in common with Libya, Iraq and, Sudan. All four are artificial creations that were put together by colonial powers.

Libya was originally two separate entities, and this history is still very much present. The western half of the country is centered on the city of Tripoli, and the eastern half on Benghazi. The tension between the two is the main factor in the politics of the country today.

The leaders of the country have alternated from the two sides. King Idris was from the eastern side. Long-time military leader Moammar Gaddafi was from the western, Tripoli, side. A prominent figure in post-Gaddafi Libya, General Haftar, is again from the eastern, Benghazi, side.

As we saw in "A Few Words About Libya", on the World And Economics Blog, it is pure folly to think that all is necessary is to remove a dictator and democracy will bloom. Moammar Gaddafi was overthrown and killed in 2011. But it was followed by civil war and the situation still has not stabilized.

The reason is that Libya was artificially created during the colonial era. The eastern side was Cyrenaica and the western side was Tripolitania. Joining the two artificially together requires an extended period under a strong leader before it is ready to be a democracy. I refer to this as "The Strong Leader Binding Phase", as we saw in the posting by that name last week.

Iraq was also artificially created during the colonial era but it was more complicated than Libya in that it was a three way situation. The three groups of Iraq were the Sunnis, the Shiites and, the Kurds. This situation definitely required an extended period under a strong leader. Just as in Libya, the removal of Saddam Hussein resulted in many years of conflict, rather than democracy.

Sudan was the geographically largest country in Africa. Like Iraq it was a three way situation. In 2011 the southern part of the country separated to form the new nation of South Sudan. The southern part of the country had been mostly black African and non-Moslem, unlike the Arab northern part of the country.

This removed one of the three sides but Sudan is still a two sided situation requiring an extended period under a strong leader. The one side is the Armed Forces. The second side is the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. There was previous combat involving the western region of Darfur, which was once an Islamic sultanate that was made part of Sudan during the colonial era.

Syria was put together from remnants of the Ottoman Empire. What we can expect to be a factor is that there is a division in the country between the Alawites, in the western coastal region, and the Sunni Moslems in the rest of the country. The Alawites were once a branch of Shia Islam. There was an Alawite State a century ago, along the coast centered around Latakia. The Assad family were Alawites and they were often considered as likely more loyal to them than Sunnis.