If you read this last week, just forget that as it has been completely updated. This has consumed me all week and I think I have this close to being solved.
THIS WAS NOT A REAL KIDNAPPING FOR RANSOM
This is definitely not about kidnapping Nancy Guthrie for money. Kidnapping for ransom is very rarely successful.
One thing that makes kidnapping for money difficult is imposters. When a kidnapping for money is in the news, anyone can pretend to be the kidnapper and send a demand for ransom. The family or company of the victim might get multiple demands for ransom, not knowing which one is from the real kidnapper. At least one such imposter has already been caught in this case.
This wasn't at all about the kidnapping. It was all about the brief doorbell camera videos. Nancy Guthrie actually didn't have the subscription required for the doorbell camera but the Kidnapper probably didn't know that. Technicians were later able to retrieve the video that we see anyway.
The victim was the mother of a television celebrity. This would ensure that the crime would get national attention. Why would he send the ransom demand to a television network, instead of directly to the victim's daughter and demand secrecy, unless he wanted the whole country to be in on it? Most kidnappers demand that the family not contact police. This shows that this was not a real kidnapping for money.
Maybe the most ridiculous thing of all is the ransom amount. The kidnapper was demanding the equivalent of only $67,000 in Bitcoin. Why would the kidnapper go through all of this, risking the rest of his life in prison, for an amount that would nowadays barely buy a new car?
Nancy Guthrie's blood was visible at the house. If the Kidnapper was really expecting a ransom then why would he do anything to leave blood, which would make it appear that she was already dead?
THE TARGET BURGLAR
I don't think that this is the Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie as he appears as taller and slimmer than the Kidnapper. But the movements made by the Kidnapper, bending down but with his back to the camera, are remarkably similar to those made by this man. Their clothes are also similar but this man, unlike the Kidnapper, doesn't have a mask or a backpack. There is a similar arched entrance way in both videos.
This is the entrance to Nancy Guthrie's house. Image from Google Street View.
This is the suspected Kidnapper, walking through that entrance, from video recorded by her doorbell camera. Image from the Wikipedia article "Disappearance Of Nancy Guthrie".
I have concluded that the man in the other video, posted to Ring's Neighbors App more than a week before the abduction of Nancy Guthrie, was the real target of the crime against Nancy Guthrie. The Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie did it, knowing that it would be recorded on doorbell camera, in the hope that the other man would be blamed for it.
The other man will be referred to here as the "Target Burglar". This video on YouTube was posted more than a week before the kidnapping of Nancy Guthrie. The Target Burglar's face has been blurred in this video but he has facial hair and his eyes are very similar to those of the Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie. I have seen an unblurred version of the video.
https://youtube.com/shorts/xylbE8lAXYk?si=EGjQjnA216qp7N37
The Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie had some grudge against the Target Burglar. The Kidnapper knew that the Target Burglar broke into houses at night and subscribed to Ring's Neighbors App, waiting for the Target Burglar to be caught on video. Unless this video of the Target Burglar was shown elsewhere or on the news, which I can't see that it was.
The Kidnapper then planned a horrendous crime and set up to make it appear as if the Target Burglar had done it. The Target Burglar had apparently learned his lesson about being caught on the above video, although not identified, and this time was wearing a mask. The unfortunate victim of this crime was Nancy Guthrie.
THE EMPHASIS ON EYES AND MOVEMENT SIMILARITIES
The Kidnapper was completely covered, wearing a mask, but made sure that his eyes were very clearly visible because they were so much like those of the Target Burglar. The two might have been related. The Kidnapper's breathing opening also shows that he has facial hair, just like the Target Burglar. Image from the Wikipedia article "Disappearance Of Nancy Guthrie".
The Kidnapper could have hidden his eyes with sunglasses, and concealed that he had facial hair, but he didn't because he wanted it to be seen.
The Kidnapper is emphasizing his eyes, which are very similar to those of the Target Burglar, and doing movements that are the same as those in the video of the Target Burglar. The Target Burglar bends down first, and then puts his hand over the camera last, while the Kidnapper does this in reverse. Just as the Target Burglar bends down, to apparently pick up something that has dropped, the Kidnapper bends down to pick up the plants. The Kidnapper carries the plants in the same way that the Target Burglar carries the shirt.
He even selected a house with an arched entrance, which can help to conceal a front door break-in, that is similar to those in the video of the Target Burglar. The primary reason that Nancy Guthrie was chosen was, of course, her daughter's celebrity. But the secondary reason is her arched entrance.
Here is a video, from YouTube, of the Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie.
https://youtube.com/shorts/GXqO2FEL9nA?si=W0wFUICl9WCQBCKi
CONCEALING THE KIDNAPPER'S HEIGHT AND BUILD
The Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie had on a backpack. This has really mystified everyone. Why would anyone wear a backpack while doing something like this if he had a car nearby? A backpack could only slow him down.
But the Target Burglar had faced his back to the camera in his video. The Kidnapper wanted to closely reenact his movements. The trouble was that the two were built somewhat differently. The Target Burglar was taller and slimmer while the Kidnapper was shorter and stockier. So the Kidnapper wore this backpack to conceal the difference in their build when his back faced the camera.
Notice that the Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie is wearing some kind of boots with heels. Why would someone wear boots while doing something like this? Sneakers would be quieter and better in case he had to move quickly. But the boots with heels make the Kidnapper appear taller, to better match the height of the Target Burglar and get this blamed on him.
He also approaches the house with his head down, looking at the ground, and not raising his head until he was inside the arched entrance way. This helps to conceal his height because he is shorter than the Target Burglar. If he had been standing straight up as he walked in, investigators could measure his height against the bricks.
This video, from YouTube, shows the Kidnapper approaching the house with his head down and how it conceals his height, making it very difficult to tell how tall he is, because he is shorter than the Target Burglar. His walk looks a little bit unnatural, like his stride is too long for his height. But this helps to make him look taller. Maybe he is emulating the walk of the Target Burglar.
https://youtube.com/shorts/KhE7YvjPeIg?si=dFRfp5ApOu_hqUb1
The Kidnapper is wearing a holster with a gun. But he is, for some reason, wearing it in the middle of his body rather than on the hip where it is always worn. The Kidnapper also puts his hand over the holster as he approached the door, and the camera. The reason is to conceal his height. If the holster was on his right hip, or clearly visible, it might be useful as a "measuring stick", to measure his height, because he is shorter than the Target Burglar. Most gun holsters are black but this one is about the same color as his pants, making it stand out less.
Notice that the Kidnapper is leaning slightly to his left, away from the camera, in this image from the Wikipedia article "Disappearance Of Nancy Guthrie". This might make him look taller.
BOXING
The gloves that the Kidnapper is wearing look very much like boxing gloves. They aren't, but do look like boxing gloves from the back of the hand although not from the front because of the fingers. There is so much emphasis on these gloves. We see the gloves more than anything. Not only do we see the gloves more than anything, but we see the back of the glove the most.
Why did the Kidnapper put the back of his hand, that looks like a boxing glove, up to the camera? Most people would put their palm over the camera.
Could it be that the Kidnapper is trying to tell us something about the Target Burglar, who he is trying to get this blamed on? Maybe the Target Burglar has done some boxing and instinctively bought a pair of gloves that resemble boxing gloves.
Notice that, in the video of the Target Burglar, he moves, when he changes position, as if he has his "back against the ropes" of a boxing ring.
Look at this image again, from the Wikipedia article "Disappearance Of Nancy Guthrie". This looks like a boxer throwing a right hook, both the glove and the movement. Maybe this is what we should expect since boxing moves are part of the instinctive motor skills of the Target Burglar, who the Kidnapper is trying to get this blamed on.
Nancy Guthrie's blood was found right here where this image was taken by the camera. But it wasn't a pool of blood, as if she had been stabbed or suffered a head injury. It was a speckling of blood as if the Kidnapper had punched her, as in this image, and maybe broken her nose.
MOTORCYCLES
When the Kidnapper does put his hand over the camera, he doesn't just put his palm over it like most people would. Instead, he puts his hand around it, and moves his hand a little bit. This looks just like he is handling the throttle of a motorcycle. Everything else here is carefully staged for a reason, so there must be some meaning in this. The Target Burglar rides a motorcycle and instinctively put his hand over the camera as if it was the throttle of a bike.
THE PLANTS
What about the plants that he puts over the camera? This looks very staged. He looks around for something to put over the camera, and also so that he can bend over as the Target Burglar is doing in his video. There just happens to be a suitable plant just outside the door. He reaches down, with one hand, and effortlessly pulls the plant out of the ground. But when he puts it over the camera he has a large mass of plants. There is a gap in the video recovered between him picking the plant and putting it over the camera. What happened to the plants, were they recovered from the crime scene?
The plants look like they might be fake, and don't match any of the plants that I can see in the yard. The only small plants that I can see in the yard are these, in the following image from Google Street View. But these have narrow leaves while the plants that the Target Burglar are holding have much broader leaves and flowers. Also remember that this happened in January, when the temperature in Tucson is in the 40s and 50s, while the Street View images look to have been taken in warmer weather.
This is the Kidnapper with the plant that he used. He must be Superman if he could pull all of these plants out of the ground in one brief pull. Image from the Wikipedia article "Disappearance Of Nancy Guthrie".
Whether or not they are fake, this looks very staged and pre-planned. The Kidnapper is holding the plants just as the Target Burglar is holding the shirt. The Kidnapper may have used fake plants because this had been in the works for some time, waiting for the Target Burglar to get caught on camera.
Look at the spot where he pulled up the plants from. Is there any sign that plants were pulled up? If not then he visited the house during the day and put the plants there. Nancy Guthrie spent the evening at the home of her other daughter. Might the Kidnapper had put the plants there, and looked to verify the camera, then?
Most importantly, what are these plants telling us? It is kind of bizarre to use plants to cover a camera. But there is a message in everything else here so why shouldn't there be in this? The Kidnapper wants to get the Target Burglar blamed for this. Maybe the Target Burglar does landscaping work, or works in a nursery, or gardening, or otherwise with plants, and the Kidnapper is portraying him as instinctively reaching for plants to cover the camera.
The Kidnapper is apparently right-handed. He has a right-handed holster and covers the camera with his right hand. But he pulls up the plants with his left hand. That is more visible to the camera, showing that everything he is doing here is being staged for the camera.
It is so interesting that he gives an approximately equal time to his eyes, the boxing gloves, the motorcycle throttle and, the plants in front of the camera. It's just like they are guests on Nancy Guthrie's daughter's Today show.
TOOLS
Why would the Kidnapper take the time to disconnect the camera, instead of simply covering it, since the video isn't stored in the camera itself?
This is another link to the Target Burglar. In the video of the Target Burglar notice that he has what appears to be tools in his back pocket, likely screwdrivers. I read an account that the Kidnapper disconnected two things, the camera and Nancy Guthrie's pacemaker app, and the Target Burglar has two tools visible in his back pocket.
THE KIDNAPPER'S FAMILIARITY WITH THE HOUSE
The Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie had some familiarity with the house and knew that the doorbell camera was there. The door is enclosed and not readily visible from the road.
The Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie was well aware of the camera and focused on it as soon as he walked to the door. What was the point of putting his hand over the camera for so long? This shows that he was focused on the camera.
Walking with his head down, as if there might be other security cameras on the roof, and then acting surprised by seeing the doorbell camera was an effort to hide that the kidnapper was familiar with Nancy Guthrie's house. It also helped to conceal his height, since he was shorter than the Target Burglar. He had the mask on so holding his head down wouldn't have made any difference as far as him being identified. He must have driven up to the house so if there was another security camera it would have caught his car. The fact that he drove up to the house shows that he was familiar enough to know that there wasn't another active security camera.
There were multiple ways that the kidnapper could have gotten into the house. Why would he walk right up to the front door, where the camera was located, unless he wanted to be on camera? Notice that there are no streetlights. Image from Google Earth.
There are other houses nearby so the Kidnapper must have driven her off in a vehicle. The house is at the center of this image, as indicated by the red dot. Image from Google Earth.
The Kidnapper likely drove up to the house where the car would not be visible on the doorbell camera. But must have had some familiarity with the house to know this. In one recovered video he looks like he is approaching from the area to the right in the foreground of this image.
Then there is the dog factor. Nancy Guthrie apparently didn't have a dog, and the Kidnapper must have known this as well as that she would be home alone and that there wouldn't be dogs in nearby yards that might start barking.
ENTERING THE HOUSE
How did he get into the house? I haven't yet read of signs that he broke in. If she heard someone breaking in she probably would have had a chance to call for help. That means that she must have opened the door.
ICE agents are wearing masks nowadays. He could have convinced her that he was an ICE agent. That would explain his gun in a holster. His backpack doesn't look like something a criminal would be carrying, there might be ICE paperwork in it. Anyone can fabricate a badge, or order a fake one online.
LISTING OF CLUES
So here are the clues.
The Kidnapper did this to get it blamed on the Target Burglar. So far it hasn't worked but thousands of tips have been sent in. The Kidnapper may send in his own tip to point to the Target Burglar.
I am intrigued by the plants that he put over the camera. The suitable plants just happened to be right outside the door. He seemed to know that they were there. This looks very staged. He effortlessly breaks off a large mass of plants with one hand but the plants look likely fake. It is possible that he visited the house while Nancy Guthrie was at her daughter's house and put the plants there. Is there any way that video could be recovered for the whole day?
What about the spot where he pulled up the plants from? Is there any sign of plants actually having been pulled up? If not then he likely visited the house earlier and put the plants there.
Nancy Guthrie spent the evening at the home of her other daughter. The garage door closed after she got home. That means she didn't enter through the front door and wouldn't have noticed if the Kidnapper had put the plants there. But this again implies familiarity. Who would have known that she would be gone during this time, and that she wouldn't enter through the front door?
January 31, when Nancy Guthrie had dinner at her daughter's house, was a Saturday. Did anyone in the house have a birthday on that day or during the week? Could the Kidnapper have known that she would thus be going there?
Who in that area subscribed to Ring's Neighbors App?
Who would have some familiarity with Nancy Guthrie's house without being close enough to be identifiable by the doorbell camera video? How about anyone who might have been there for sales or delivery or maintenance?
Nancy Guthrie's daughter was a television celebrity and the Kidnapper clearly had a good sense of acting. Could there be a connection there that brought him to visit the house?
Arrests and convictions in the Tucson area are definitely where to look. Could the two be related and the Target Burglar committed a crime and allowed the Kidnapper, with very similar eyes, to get blamed for it? Then this is the Kidnapper's way of getting revenge. That crime might have involved a doorbell video and the Kidnapper might have a burglary background himself. The Target Burglar wasn't a killer so this had to be set up as a kidnapping for money.
The Target Burglar was stealing a shirt, so he probably doesn't have much money. A place to look is for anyone in the area getting public assistance, nutritional benefits, or unemployment benefits.
What about Nancy Guthrie's phone? Did anyone call or text her?
The Kidnapper is very skilled at making brief videos. He did this one nearly perfectly. His major mistake is with the plants. Where did he develop this skill? How about TikTok? Including videos that might have been taken down so that he wouldn't be identified here.
The Kidnapper just might have a doorbell camera of his own to rehearse all of this. He certainly did quite a bit of rehearsing. The Kidnapper is very familiar with these cameras and how things appear in them. He knew that his backpack was made of material that would appear to "shine" when seen on camera, and this would help to conceal his build.
APPEAL
Here is the appeal that could solve this crime. This video from YouTube is again of the Target Burglar. This is not the Kidnapper of Nancy Guthrie, and had nothing to do with it. But the Kidnapper knew him well and is trying to get this blamed on him, so the next step is to find him.
Does anyone, especially in the Tucson area, recognize this man as having been a boxer or doing landscaping work, or otherwise working with plants? He also could ride a motorcycle.
https://youtube.com/shorts/xylbE8lAXYk?si=EGjQjnA216qp7N37
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