What is so perilous about these two wars, in Ukraine and in the Middle East, is that there is a lot of developments in technology in recent years that has never been applied to warfare. These two wars are working out the applications of the new technologies in terms of weapons and tactics. The two wars have different characters and are working out the new technology in different ways.
The Ukraine War is the Mass War. The most important technological development of the war is with drones. What is most dangerous about drones is simply how inexpensive and easy to manufacture they are. The weakness of drones is that communication with the base is necessary. This electromagnetic communication is detectable and warns the enemy that the drones are on the way. The communication between a drone and it's operator can be jammed, or even hacked. The solution, that is developing in the Ukraine War, is to put drones and AI together. The drone will select it's own target and no communication with the base will be necessary.
I find that an especially perilous development is the Ukrainian attacks on Russian ships in the Mediterranean, which is far from Ukraine, by drones. So much of the products, food and fuel that the world uses is delivered by ship. This means that anyone will be able to acquire inexpensive drones to attack faraway ships. Even if the attacks are not successful, what will that do to the cost of things due to insurance? Ships can be torpedoed by submarines, as we saw this week. But submarines are expensive and few countries have the capacity to maintain a fleet of submarines that is a global force. The development of inexpensive and effective anti-ship drones changes the whole global dynamic.
Another side of the development of drones in conflict is going on in the Western Hemisphere. Drones are being extensively used to smuggle illegal drugs into the U.S. These drugs are lightweight and compact and an inexpensive drone can carry a fortune in illegal drugs. Radar is useless against drones because they fly too low and can be made mostly of plastics, or other non-metals, that don't show up on radar.
The war in the Middle East is the Precision War. This war is developing new frontiers in targeting and killing enemy leaders and striking important sites. Israel has tracked and killed the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, and now the Supreme Leader of Iran. According to one report, Israelis hacked traffic cameras in Tehran to track the Supreme Leader. The leaders themselves might be difficult to track but a weakness is that their bodyguards are easier to track. Never in the history of warfare has anything like Israel causing the pagers used by Hezbollah leaders to explode. Before the aerial attack on Iran in June 2025, it's air defenses had been tracked and neutralized. Piloted aircraft, as opposed to drones, are very important in this war.
Remember that history tends to repeat itself. The accuracy of these bombs and missiles that killed Israel's enemies are a reenactment of the stone from David's sling that brought down Goliath.
Considering how history repeats itself, let's have a look at another limited war that acted as a proving ground for the latest developments in military technology, just in time for the world war that followed.
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SPANISH CIVIL WAR
There is a war that tends to get buried somewhere among memory of the many, many wars of the Twentieth Century. But, given how history tends to repeat itself and we tend to reenact it, often without realizing it, this long-ago war is something that the whole world should be aware of today.
Some readers may have not even heard of the war to which I am referring. It is the Spanish Civil War of 1936-39.The Spanish Civil War was between the ruling Republicans, and the uprising Nationalists. The Republicans, in contrast with those in the U.S., were leftward in economic slant. The Nationalists who rose up against them were rightward and generally supportive of the Catholic Church. The best-known name to emerge from the Spanish Civil War was that of General Francisco Franco. He would lead the Nationalists to ultimate victory, and then lead Spain until his death in 1975.
This was the era of dictators in Europe, and many saw this conflict as being not between right and left, but as between democracy and dictatorship, with the ruling Republicans representing democracy and Francisco Franco being the would-be dictator who was trying to replace it.
The way that Spain was divided by the war was not neatly defined. Both the population and the military was split between the two sides. In general terms, the Nationalists controlled the western part of the country, and steadily advanced against the Republicans, who eventually held only the southeastern part of the country.
The course of the war somewhat resembled the "Reconquista", against the Moors, that we saw in the posting on this blog, "When The Moors Ruled Spain", except that the Reconquista proceeded from north to south while the Spanish Civil War proceeded from west to east. But Franco emerged as the strong leader that was congruent to Ferdinand and Isabella, after the Reconquista.
If the Spaniards had fought out the war themselves, until one side or the other won, it may have ended up being of no lasting global significance. But that was not the way the war turned out. What is so important about the Spanish Civil War is that so many other nations got involved in it, on one side or the other.
Two nations sided with the ruling Republicans, the Soviet Union and Mexico. The Republicans supported a leftward view of economics, and the Communists naturally wanted them to triumph. Mexico had undergone it's own revolution, against Porfirio Diaz in 1910, who allowed a few people to amass great wealth at the expense of the rest of the people.
While it is the Russian Revolution of 1917 that is considered as the real beginning of world Communism, it was predated by the Mexican Revolution seven years before. Land redistribution was a central component of the Mexican Revolution, and it wanted the Spanish leftward party, the Republicans, to win in the civil war taking place in it's former colonial power.
A force of Communist sympathizers, known as the International Brigades, sent volunteers from many nations to support the Republican side.
The Nationalists, led by Francisco Franco who were trying to overthrown the Republican government, had more international support than the Republicans.
Hitler and Mussolini were consolidating their power and saw Franco as a potential future ally. Mussolini sent supplies, as well as air and ground forces in his support. But not all Italians sympathized with Franco, and some joined the other side. The Nazis sent the force known as the Condor Legion in support of Franco. It had army, air force and, navy elements.
It was not the outcome of the Spanish Civil War that was so significant about it. What it did was to give the nations that would soon be engaged in the Second World War a chance to gain combat experience with the latest weapons and tactics. The Condor Legion became adept with the use of modern tanks, planes and, submarines, even though the victorious Franco never turned into the ally that Hitler had hoped for.
One thing that came out of the Spanish Civil War was the Pablo Picasso painting "Guernica". The surreal painting is about the Luftwaffe and Italian Air Force bombing of the town in northern Spain by that name. Several hundred civilians were killed. Franco had requested the bombing of the Republican-held town, and it turned out to be the prototype of the mass bombing of civilians in the soon-to-come Second World War. Image from the Wikipedia article "Guernica (Picasso)".
Now that the nations in the brewing global war had gained combat experience with the latest land, air and, sea weapons and tactics, the Second World War began a few months after the Spanish Civil War had ended.
So why should we be so concerned about the Spanish Civil War today?
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